I'm a bit late to the party it seems. Sorry if this is out there.
[/li][li]Since there are still many Nintendo characters, there isn't a need for more third parties. There are still quite a lot of popular Nintendo characters left (Ridley, Krystal and King K. Rool). Not to mention there will be many more characters between now and then (6 of the 16 new characters came into the world after Melee. 3 of them within 3 years of Brawl's launch).
[/li][li]The focus is still Nintendo. Sonic proves this. He was by far the most popular character; however, he wasn't added until 2007, close to when the game would release. Popularity drives the roster, but Sonic hardly made it in, and other popular third party characters (like Sora and Megaman) didn't. Snake, too, probably wasn't an easy decision, and if Sakurai and Kojima weren't friend it would have never happened.
[/li][li]Besides Megaman, no one else is wanted. Even still, Megaman is out numbered by other characters (namely, Ridley). The next most popular characters is a few leagues under other characters. Of course, Japanese popularity wasn't taken into account, so the next closest one is probably in China.[/quote]
You say 'no other third parties are wanted' but then say K Rool, Krystal and Ridley are wanted. The only reason they get support is because before Brawl, the precedent was already there for secondary / tertiary characters, and so people began to expect more and more secondary / tertiary characters. Because there was no precedent for 3rd parties, nobody expected them, so nobody talked about them, and therefore they didn't seem wanted - even when Snake, and then Sonic, were announced, there still wasn't a huge precedent, so people just asked for the major ones - ie. Megaman.
I'm am absolutely certain that as more and more people anticipate SSB4, more and more people will want more and more third parties, because the precedent is now there. [/quote]
You fail to understand the situation.
Here's how it works. Characters get in based on request. This is popularity. You are still under the impression that a character who is known by more people is popular which is not true (it's a matter that the word "popularity" means request, or how much people want to see one character).
The truth is that Megaman is the only request third party character. The most popular characters are Nintendo ones. All this is post Brawl. While many people have suggested third party characters, Megaman is the only one who has been consistently. The others have been greatly scattered. I have taken many polls, and constantly I see a great number of third party characters, but most will requested no more then once or twice. Only a few characters can match the top requested Nintendo characters. IMPOSSIBLE you scream. Not, it's quite true. Go look at SSB4 discussions. You'll see that people have a lot of different request. Not just major characters, but secondary too. Nintendo is a single country in the continent that is gaming. Many countries are spread across this continent. In each country, are states inhabited by franchises. A franchise is a sate. The Nintendo country has many fighters who qualify because they are right their. Word of the contest reaches their each quickly. But, also, when opened up for the population of the entire continent, there are just too many characters. A country has many states and many citizens in those. Will they every find a fighter everyone wants to so. Only the best can compete in Nintendo's stadium. The others must be strong enough, and have enough uproar to walk into the Colosseum. But it isn't that easy. You see, kings rule the country. Only they can permit a challenger to leave his homeland and compete in the stadium. It is no wonder why every 7 years, few challengers, if any walk into the Colosseum.
What you must remember is who are the Smash fans.
The people who are primarily buying the game are Nintendo fans. Thus, they will suggest more Nintendo characters. Despite the characters getting more and more obscure, people still ask for them. Geno, for instance, is probably the most requested character, yet he has only been in one games. Why, then, is so highly requested, especially when there are many third party characters that more people know, like Pac-Man, Sora, and even Simon Belmonth, are scoring significantly lower then a lot of characters. The truth is two fold
This is the primary reason why none of them save Megaman are being suggested; however, even he is out classed by other characters (namely Geno and Ridley, but Krystal and King K. Rool also challenge his rule). Smash Brothers fans wanted Sonic becuase of his rivalry with Mario and the hoax back in Melee. Since he is in, most fans could care less what other third party is in (most are asking for more Sonic characters, but even they are spread thinly across Tails, Knuckles and Shadow). Megaman has a following and the long history with Nintendo has help, yet he isn't pulling as much weight as Sonic did.
And the kicker is this: Sonic barely got in. He was the most requested character. Megaman is the most requested third party character (if we count Geno as Nintendo) for SSB4. He is outclassed by Ridley, and ties with the likes of King K. Rool and Krystal.
Do the math. Megaman isn't likely to get into Smash any time soon. Additionally, all other third parties are spread thing and have few request. Coincidently, this means
that the chances are slim if any third party characters gets into SSB4.Now that Ive laid a foundation, let's look at you ideology. What you are claiming is that "People are only asking for Nintendo characters becuase, back then, only Nintendo characters will be in. Come SSB4, people will want third party characters." Let us take a time machine a return to the year 2004. We are in a message board known as Nsider, when it was still alive and well. We look around and see threads about Sonic. A lot of people want him. Some even asking for other characters, like Megaman. We look and see responses about how they are not Nintendo. We move forward to November 2006. We are at Smashboards now. "What do you see". "A lot of character threads." Yes, and what about them?" "I see a lot of characters there are some third party." "Is Nintendo there?" "Yes". We enter another thread "Here is a list of all the support threads for each characters. Notice something odd." "There are a lot of Nintendo characters, but this proves my point. People aren't suggesting third party characters yet." I shake my head and return us to October 2008.
Have you learned nothing in our trip. People have always wanted certain characters. Even those that can not be in the game. But here we sit over two years since Snake was shown in Brawl and the opinions have not changed. The only difference is that Sonic is in Brawl, so Megaman was next in line. Your idea does not work since people have still be primarily asking for Nintendo characters. They continue to do so now. The only difference is no one shots down third party choices. Thus, everyone gives the opinion they would never say out loud. "BUT" one claims "There is not enough time. "No, there has been plenty of time." Snake appeared in mid 2006, and the support thread in early 2007. Yet the Nintendo characters greatly outweigh the third party character. Since 2006, the hype for third party characters has not changed. People do not want them more. They want them, but they can not decide who is next. The fact that people can't pick one, unlike Sonic, is showing that people are just asking for a dream fighting game rather then who their favorite character is.
What scares me is not only do people totally deny these facts, but they beleive the exact opposite of where the evidence points. Sakurai has taken a minimalistic approch to third party characters. This is true if Sonic was a last minute decision despite he WAS the most requested character. While many people have place their bets on a Nintendo characters, only Megaman receives enough request to at least be looked over; consequently, he is not as strong as Sonic was.
Smash Brothers will not become filled with third party characters and it high time people start realizing this. It's impossible, but people still claim it. I should probably over look it and just say "Hey, they can dream what they want". The reason is becuase everyone wants their dream fight game. Their, being the big word here. Why was everyone so upset with Brawl's roster when it was first shown. It had many characters people asked for. The reason was because they didn't get their game. Sakurai made the roster to appeal to as many people as possible, that I am assure of, but everyone was upset. See, everyone, including you, has this "dream roster" they make up in their head. They try to justify the character the best way they can, and at the same time deny all others. They have it in their mind, and 99% of you (including you DiU) has it in their mind what it is. Truthfully, a lot of the reasons (ones I've probably given as well) as BS. Popularity is what drives characters. Sakurai is picking them on who everyone (the fans) want to see; however, I know there is no one third party character (besides Megaman) that people can agree on. If this is the case, then they will be over looked (even more so since Sakurai is firm on having the game be 98% Nintendo).
The truth is making Smash Brothers have a lot of third parties will be a legal mess, to the point where Sakurai will spend more of his time in the meeting rooms of these companies then in the development room. It's just too much to do, and makes the entire game to far spread. It's not just like someone snaps their fingers, even among Nintendo, there can be some problems procuring rights. So imaging the mess of trying to do it for multiple companies outside the umbrella one. It would also be a waste on time since there are so few third party characters everyone wants which will sacrifice the roster's abroad appeal. Of course, you'd chime in and claim that everyone will love it. The answer is NO, and it should be obvious at this point. The fans of the game are who is pulling the character strings. Trying to make a roster that will make everyone happy with third party characters is to much. Look at an SSB4 thread and you'll see that no one can come ti an agreement on third party characters. In contrast, the Nintendo character conversations go much easier as there are plenty of characters that everyone can agree on. Is it coming together? The fact is that third party characters make more mess, where you KNOW the fans don't want those characters. People can agree on Nintendo characters, and nothing is sacrificed along the way.
People, however, want their game so badly. Let's take the Krystal thing for example. She is a character a lot of people requested. This is true. She has popularity in both the east and west. She is what we dub, popular, yet people try so hard to say she shouldn't be in the game. If popularity drives a roster, then why is Krystal being in the game wrong. It's not. The people who say it is have their own roster. Their roster denies Krystal becuase it is not what they like. They dislike Krystal, so Krystal is thus a bad character. "Forget all the people who like the character. It must be all furries and idiots anyway. Now Jill, THAT is a character". Of course, no one wants Jill. The mass doesn't want to play as Jill, but want to play as Krystal. Krystal is a better choice becuase the majority wants to play as her. Jill is a worse choice since a lot fewer people want to play as her. This is how it works. This is why Slippy has yet to appear as a playable character. You could probably argue that Slippy is a more important, has better moveset potential, and known by more people. Of course, very few (virtually none) want Slippy. So why bother. The thing is people have their ideal roster. It is the roster they want, but it soon becomes they roster that "is". Of course, when the real roster comes, they'll start foaming at the mouth because no one shared their opinion. Krystal was a great example becuase she is a character who has been subjected to this. People have argued day and night why she shouldn't be in, but they forget that she is a popular choice.
The third party thing is impractical and almost impossible. It's not what the fans want. It's not what Sakurai wants. And it certainly is a mess. People have fabricated this idea of what Smash should be, and it generally isn't in the fan's best interest. It's in the best interest of Smashman0764. He wants this game a certain way. He wants it HIS way. And his way is not very interesting. This is what you must understand: what you are asking for is not what will happen. I can tell you DiU that you will be very upset come SSB4 when the number of third party characters is few. Do not forget, the true roster is determined by the majority, not the minority.
(hope I didn't go overboard. Also, I know not all of this relates to your post, but I'll leave it here since it sums up the argument well)