Flip, what you just said is exactly what I've tried to do for a couple months. I completed a very logical and fairly reasonable (but not perfect) roster that I thought would make many people (including myself) happy on October 2008. So, to celebrate my 1,000th post I'll explain my SSB4 roster choices in depth. Its a very long read, though, but I hope it helps you guys understand where I'm coming from.
First thing I did was remove Snake and Sonic because they are third-party guests thus emphasizing the focus on Nintendo. I really don't think Nintendo would want to go through the hassle with legal mumbo-jumbo again just to include third-party characters.
Next thing I did was take Brawl's 9x4 roster and added one more row. I did it because I noticed that SSB64 had 2 rows, Melee had 3 rows, and Brawl had 4 rows, so why not 5 rows in SSB4? And that's how I came up with the 9x5 grid. I really think this is probably the most logical step to make. Many of us believed that Brawl would have 50 characters just because Melee doubled the roster from SSB64.
SSB64: 12
Melee: 12x2=24 (really 25/26)
Brawl: 25x2=50 (really 35/39)
SSB4: 35x2=70 (keep dreaming!
)
So with 44-45 characters as the minumum limit, I came up with 40 potential newcomers, both expected and unexpected. Knowing that there's no way SSB4 would have over 60 characters, I had to narrow the choices but I needed a plan to help me make careful decisions. I relied on Brawl's roster as a guide and categorized the 9 columns into groups. Doing that made it easier for me to sort 40 characters into 9 categories and determine who have the high priority to be playable.
#1 - Candidates for the Mario Main Series category: Bowser Jr., Toad, Paper Mario, Dr. Mario
#2 - Candidates for the Mario Spin-Off Franchises category: Dixie Kong, King K. Rool, Donkey Kong Jr., Baby Mario & Baby Luigi, Overalls Wario
#3 - Candidates for the Zelda Franchises category: Tingle, Toon Zelda / Tetra
#4 - Candidates for the Disk System Franchises category: Takamaru, Ridley, Dark Samus, Little Mac, Sukapon, Balloon Fighter
#5 - Candidates for the GameBoy+Gamecube Cutesy Franchises category: Starfy, Muddy Mole, Isaac, Lip, Animal Crosser
#6 - Candidates for the SNES+N64 Sci-Fi Franchises category: Krystal, Samurai Goroh, Black Shadow, Saki Amamiya
#7 - Candidates for the Pokemon Franchises category: Mewtwo, Meowth, Pokemon Ranger, 5th Gen Pokemon
#8 - Candidates for the Former Japan-Only RPG Franchises category: Ninten, Claus, Masked Man, Porky, Roy, New FE Lord, Andy
#9 - Candidates for the Characters Representing Nintendo Hardware category (aka the WTF category): Hunting Dog, Captain Rainbow, Mii
Now, I'll explain my choices. The 2nd column is the Mario Spin-Off Franchises and I squeezed in as much as possible. Donkey Kong gets 4 reps in 3 slots - Donkey Kong, Diddy & Dixie (as a team), and King K. Rool. Yoshi gets 2 reps in 1 slot - simply have Baby Mario ride on Yoshi's back when you select Yoshi on the character select screen and play as Baby Mario alone with the Yoshi's Egg following along when you select Baby Mario on the character select screen. Wario gets 2 reps in 1 slot - Wario gets two movesets depending on his wardrobe - WarioWare outfit grants him his old moveset from Brawl and Wario Land outfit grants him a new moveset based off Wario Land games.
The 4th column is the Famicom Disk System Franchises. I wanted to showcase more franchises so I added Little Mac (popular NES game and would likely be a popular game on the Wii) and Takamaru (popular Japan-only FDS game) instead of adding more Metroid characters. Ridley is too big (seriously, the only time he was Samus-sized was the original NES game and Melee's intro
) that I think he would work better as a boss and Dark Samus would likely end up being a clone of Samus anyway. I did not add Sukapon because I read somewhere that Sakurai said he wouldn't put Sukapon in a SSB game plus he's too obscure with little significance to Nintendo. I did not add Balloon Fighter because I figured Tingle would be a far more interesting Balloon Fighter than a generic one plus the Ice Climbers already represent the pre-FDS games anyway. Oh, and Sakurai already said Balloon Fighter (and Excitebike, Urban Champion, and Bubbles) wouldn't work well for various reasons (kinda like why I wouldn't suggest Diskun
).
The 5th column is the GameBoy+Gamecube Cutesy Franchises. We have Kirby, Meta Knight, King Dedede, and Olimar so we only need one more. I chose Starfy over Muddy Mole, Isaac, Lip, and Animal Crosser. Starfy is the only one who has the most games out of the bunch and is no longer Japan-only therefore he's the most marketable, which greatly helps his chances. I didn't choose Animal Crosser because Sakurai determined that Animal Crossing characters wouldn't fit as fighters despite the franchise's popularity. I didn't choose Isaac because his series pretty much died after two games despite its popularity. I didn't choose Lip because she's fairly obscure despite her series gaining international popularity (mainly because she's Japan-only while the series are not). I didn't choose Muddy Mole because he's obscure and isn't very significant to Nintendo which is unfortunate because I really would love to play as him.
The 6th column is the SNES+N64 Sci-Fi Franchises. Star Fox gets 3 reps (it doesn't matter whether I chose Krystal to replace either Falco or Wolf or not) and F-Zero already have 1 rep. So I opted for Saki Amamiya from Sin & Punishment (very popular import N64 game, will likely be a popular game on the Wii with Sin & Punishment 2) because I wanted to showcase more franchises plus Sakurai already said Saki looked like he fits right in Brawl so why not? So I didn't add neither Samurai Goroh and Black Shadow for these very reasons.
The 8th column is the Former Japan-Only RPG Franchises which Mother, Fire Emblem, and Wars are. Ness and Lucas return along with Marth. But I wanted a new franchise so I added Andy (aka Commanding Officer) so that meant Fire Emblem only gets 2 reps. So I had to pick New FE Lord to replace Ike instead of keeping him and adding clones Roy, Ninten, and Claus.
The 9th column is the Characters Representing Nintendo Hardware. It is also the WTF column with both Mr. Game & Watch and R.O.B. representing Game & Watch units and Gyromite/Stack-Up respectively. I chose Hunting Dog to represent the Zapper-based NES games because Duck Hunt was the most popular Zapper game and was even bundled with the NES and Super Mario Bros.! He could also represent Nintendo's first arcade game Laser Clay Shooting System (also Nintendo's first light gun-based game) which was pretty much the inspiration of the Duck Hunt series. It was a toss-up between Captain Rainbow and Mii but I chose Captain Rainbow mainly because of the nature of his game (he interacts with obscure Nintendo characters so why not with popular ones?). The Miis could be used in Fighter Builder (kinda like Stage Builder but with characters) and could replace the Random Select slot (the 45th slot) and would naturally represent the Wii.
Notice I didn't discuss columns #1, #3, and #7. It can get very messy when trying to determine the Mario, Zelda, and especially Pokemon rosters.
So I'll leave them up as undetermined for the next year to see any news with the Mario, Zelda, and Pokemon franchises.
1. Mario
2. Luigi
3. Peach
4. Bowser
5. Toad or Bowser Jr. or Paper Mario or Dr. Mario
6. Wario (WarioWare / Wario Land)
7. Yoshi / Baby Mario
8. Donkey Kong
9. Diddy Kong / Dixie Kong
10. King K. Rool
11. Link
12. Zelda / Sheik (or new Alter Ego or none)
13. Ganondorf or Ganon
14. Toon Link or Tingle or New Zelda Character
15. Toon Zelda / Tetra (or new Alter Ego or none) or Tingle or New Zelda Character
16. Takamaru
17. Samus / Zero Suit Samus
18. Pit
19. Little Mac
20. Ice Climbers
21. Kirby
22. Meta Knight
23. King Dedede
24. Olimar
25. Starfy
26. Fox
27. Falco or Krystal
28. Wolf or Krystal
29. Captain Falcon
30. Saki Amamiya
31. Pokemon Trainer
32. Pikachu
33. Jigglypuff
34. Meowth or Mewtwo or Lucario or 5th Gen Pokemon or Pokemon Ranger
35. Meowth or Mewtwo or Lucario or 5th Gen Pokemon or Pokemon Ranger
36. Ness
37. Lucas
38. Marth
39. New FE Lord
40. Commanding Officer
41. Mr. Game & Watch
42. R.O.B.
43. Hunting Dog
44. Captain Rainbow or Mii
45. Random or Mii
I narrowed 40 possible newcomers down to just about 17-21 most logical newcomers. I added 7-8 new franchises so now my SSB4 roster have 24-25 franchises in total. I only added two Japan-only newcomers (Takamaru and Captain Rainbow) and two retro newcomers (Takamaru and Hunting Dog). Starfy is no longer Japan-only, Little Mac is no longer retro, and Saki Amamiya is no longer Japan-only and retro. Commanding Officer hails from a popular franchise that is no longer Japan-only. Mii is the international icon of the Wii. The other 12-21 potential newcomers come from popular franchises like Mario, Wario, Yoshi, Donkey Kong, Zelda, Star Fox, Pokemon, and Fire Emblem.
On top of that, I think I made a good job balancing the franchises. Mario, Zelda, and Pokemon each get 5 slots. Donkey Kong, Kirby, and Star Fox each get 3 slots. Mother and Fire Emblem each get 2 slots. All the other franchises each get 1 slot.
I also think I did a good job balancing the "primary stars", "secondary stars", and "golden oldies". Sure I didn't add a 2nd F-Zero rep, a 3rd Fire Emblem rep, a 3rd Mother rep, and a 4th Star Fox rep but think of how much more attention SSB4 would get if the newcomers from popular unrepresented franchises were added instead! Little Mac from Punch-Out!! (Wii), Starfy from The Legendary Starfy (DS), Saki Amamiya from Sin & Punishment 2 (Wii), and Commanding Officer from Advance Wars (GBA) plus three obscure franchises from Duck Hunt (NES), Nazo no Murasamejou (FDS), and Captain Rainbow (Wii) and maybe Wii Sports (though not obscure). The way I see it, SSB4's first trailer could showcase Little Mac, Takamaru, Starfy, Saki Amamiya, and Commanding Officer with Mario, Link (likely with a new design from a future Zelda game), Kirby, Pikachu, and Pit (hopefully with a new design from a future Kid Icarus game) to appeal both older and younger fans.
Eventually a SSB4 website could be launched and updated daily on weekdays. Many people would be delighted to see newcomers Baby Mario (riding Yoshi's back and playable with Yoshi's Egg), Dixie Kong (as a team with Diddy Kong), Wario's alternate costume/moveset, and a new FE Lord along with the newcomers from SSB4's first trailer and 20 veterans from Brawl for a grand total of 26 starting characters. That would mean 18 unlockable characters (10 veterans and 8 newcomers) for a grand total of 44 characters! It could exceed 50 if you include transformations and alternate movesets so there would be no need for a 10x5 roster.