Let's put this to rest: Analyzing the Brawl Poll!

[Game Guru]

Ridley, Krystal, Geno, Capt. Olimar, and Takamaru are the ones highest on the Poll... While some say that it's not based the actual popularity of them, but instead just what Sakurai thinks is interesting comments... The comments are interesting to SAKURAI, meaning that this poll... if it isn't just based on popularity, then it must ALSO be based on Sakurai's like for the characters, since it's his poll and his choices in posts.

[Smashchu]

samaine said:

Ridley, Krystal, Geno, Capt. Olimar, and Takamaru are the ones highest on the Poll... While some say that it's not based the actual popularity of them, but instead just what Sakurai thinks is interesting comments... The comments are interesting to SAKURAI, meaning that this poll... if it isn't just based on popularity, then it must ALSO be based on Sakurai's like for the characters, since it's his poll and his choices in posts.

Yeah, that is indeed true. Of course, it's also relative. Characters who scored a lot may have also been sugested a lot too. Geno is a good example. If he gets on the poll enough, then Sakurai will make more comments about him.

[Flip]

Well, we need to remember that the poll had thousands of entries and only 300 or so were posted. They could be sent via mail and the web, and I know that I at least entered stuff on my own twice. Who knows about the rest of the world.

And so that's why I personally think the poll deserves more credit than most give it, because it truly is hand-selected by Sakurai himself. And even though a lot of people like to debunk it by saying that Sonic wasn't present, he really was. The list we made last year is totally incomplete because nobody has taken the time to read every single one in Japanese. But the list that we do have is at least accurate enough to gauge how many times characters were requested out of the total Sakurai selected, you get what I'm saying? Geno and Dedede appear the top of the list because Sakurai actually appreciated that fans wanted those characters. There are external factors, of course. Lucas wasn't a TOP contender and he still appeared. Sonic was only posted once and he still appeared. But the fact that every other new fighter (save Pokemon Trainer, who was requested as Red/Satoshi/Ash on the Melee polls and "human Pokemon character" on Brawl polls) is from the top part of that list (or the Melee poll, which was also "fan-selected") is very striking.

Geno, Krystal, Ridley, Olimar, and Takamaru are the next to come. And we can't forget WW Link. We must expect those characters, for the simple reason that Sakurai found those entries interesting to post.

[Deleted]

Flip, I think I'm the only one who doesn't treat The Poll™ with the same amount of respect everyone else does. I can understand what you're saying and I respect that, but I'm honestly and sincerely tired of people treating it like a trump card. "WELL, THE POLL™ SAYS..."

Yeah, I don't give a rat's heinie about what The Poll™ says. I'm no puppet to The Poll™ or the Will of Sakurai, and I can come to conclusions just as easily without them. It's more of a bother than anything else--a pet peeve. So I'm hoping nobody gets too cheesed off at me for saying this.

[Spud]

sgtmajorkururu said:

Flip, I think I'm the only one who doesn't treat The Poll™ with the same amount of respect everyone else does. I can understand what you're saying and I respect that, but I'm honestly and sincerely tired of people treating it like a trump card. "WELL, THE POLL™ SAYS..."

Yeah, I don't give a rat's heinie about what The Poll™ says. I'm no puppet to The Poll™ or the Will of Sakurai, and I can come to conclusions just as easily without them. It's more of a bother than anything else--a pet peeve. So I'm hoping nobody gets too cheesed off at me for saying this.

I agree entirely TEi. The Poll is treated way to much like some sort of a taro. I base my conclusions off of things on smashbros.com and not always the text. After all today we got "Wario alone is special" even though we've already seen Link as Dark Link.

[Smashchu]

sgtmajorkururu said:

Flip, I think I'm the only one who doesn't treat The Poll™ with the same amount of respect everyone else does. I can understand what you're saying and I respect that, but I'm honestly and sincerely tired of people treating it like a trump card. "WELL, THE POLL™ SAYS..."

Yeah, I don't give a rat's heinie about what The Poll™ says. I'm no puppet to The Poll™ or the Will of Sakurai, and I can come to conclusions just as easily without them. It's more of a bother than anything else--a pet peeve. So I'm hoping nobody gets too cheesed off at me for saying this.

It comes to two points
1)The poll is the only real eveidence we have on why a character should be in Brawl. The rest is subjective. Beyond maybe something like size of the fanbase and sales, the poll is the only real physical evidence we have
2)It works. And this is the biggest point. If you look at the Melee poll characters who are the highest were in Brawl. Marth, Bowser, Peach, Ganondorf, Mewtwo,and Zelda/Sheik all made it into Smash due to the poll. We can also see that 4 of the 6 characters added after the poll made it in, and one was still highly popular. Sakurai adds some characters for other reasons like with PT and ICs, but for the most part, the poll dictates what he adds. You'd think we'd still see it so highly if it didn't work?

[Deleted]

It's not that it doesn't work, it's that everyone treats it like it's the God-given truth. The Poll™ had Megaman on it--he's not even going to be in the game as an Assist Trophy. The Poll™ also mentioned a lot of characters that have become Assist Trophies, but people still swear by it. "The Poll™ will steer us! The Poll™ will be our guiding force! The Poll™ is our new Lord and Savior just short of Masahiro Sakurai himself!"

It gets a mite...irksome. I'd like to think that we're all a little bit more self-dependent, and that we can all think without this supposed "system" for a man who thinks like a genius, and yet is still somewhat bass-ackwards. We shouldn't rely on The Poll™ as a fallback for our points of view; they should matter first, foremost and only because we have them, and if we need a silly, temporary, region-specific poll to justify our position, then we're not thinking very independently at all. Back-up should come from other evidence, or at least a decent reason as to why you think what you do; not because "The Poll™ says so."

[Arcadenik]

Obey the Poll. Do not anger the Poll. The Poll rules all.

[Smashchu]

sgtmajorkururu said:

It's not that it doesn't work, it's that everyone treats it like it's the God-given truth. The Poll™ had Megaman on it--he's not even going to be in the game as an Assist Trophy. The Poll™ also mentioned a lot of characters that have become Assist Trophies, but people still swear by it. "The Poll™ will steer us! The Poll™ will be our guiding force! The Poll™ is our new Lord and Savior just short of Masahiro Sakurai himself!";

But it just goes back to the two things I said.

The thing is you have to READ the poll. Megaman for instance. He made a 2 on the poll. Not a 5 or 1 but a two. While he stood the best chance after Sonic, it was more fanboys who supported him and made a bandwagon. All the AT in Brawl made 1s. So far, none of the characters who have made 2 or higher have become ATs trophies or stickers.

It gets a mite...irksome. I'd like to think that we're all a little bit more self-dependent, and that we can all think without this supposed "system" for a man who thinks like a genius, and yet is still somewhat bass-ackwards. We shouldn't rely on The Poll™ as a fallback for our points of view; they should matter first, foremost and only because we have them, and if we need a silly, temporary, region-specific poll to justify our position, then we're not thinking very independently at all. Back-up should come from other evidence, or at least a decent reason as to why you think what you do; not because "The Poll™ says so."

But this goes back to point 1. We have to fall back on the poll because their is nothing else. Back in Melee's day you could have said this. But now we have all of the major characters for the franchise, and the ones that aren't in have either been added or will be added. The rest are characters like Bowser Jr where their importance is skewered. This is where the polls comes it. We use it becuase there isn't much else to use. Resources are scarse. But lets look at it this way.

Starfy: A lot of us thought he was probably a sure thing. He was a popular characters with many cameos, had a song, and 4 games in the span of a few years. But what happned? He became an assist trophy. The ultimate evidence is that he wasn't on the poll. So naturally, he's an assist.

The poll is see so highly becuase it is the ultimate validity. It shows Sakurai's actual interest in the game. The only down side to it is it is incomplete. But beyond that it works. We see it highy because it has proven it's self often. So far, PT is the only thing that can trump it, but even then, it could have been a suggestion, and shows Sakurai loves to do something unique.

So in the end, while not ever characters will make it in, and all the characters won't come off the poll, it gives us the best idea of who to expect.

[Spud]

smashchu2 said:

sgtmajorkururu said:

It's not that it doesn't work, it's that everyone treats it like it's the God-given truth. The Poll™ had Megaman on it--he's not even going to be in the game as an Assist Trophy. The Poll™ also mentioned a lot of characters that have become Assist Trophies, but people still swear by it. "The Poll™ will steer us! The Poll™ will be our guiding force! The Poll™ is our new Lord and Savior just short of Masahiro Sakurai himself!";

But it just goes back to the two things I said.

The thing is you have to READ the poll. Megaman for instance. He made a 2 on the poll. Not a 5 or 1 but a two. While he stood the best chance after Sonic, it was more fanboys who supported him and made a bandwagon. All the AT in Brawl made 1s. So far, none of the characters who have made 2 or higher have become ATs trophies or stickers.

It gets a mite...irksome. I'd like to think that we're all a little bit more self-dependent, and that we can all think without this supposed "system" for a man who thinks like a genius, and yet is still somewhat bass-ackwards. We shouldn't rely on The Poll™ as a fallback for our points of view; they should matter first, foremost and only because we have them, and if we need a silly, temporary, region-specific poll to justify our position, then we're not thinking very independently at all. Back-up should come from other evidence, or at least a decent reason as to why you think what you do; not because "The Poll™ says so."

But this goes back to point 1. We have to fall back on the poll because their is nothing else. Back in Melee's day you could have said this. But now we have all of the major characters for the franchise, and the ones that aren't in have either been added or will be added. The rest are characters like Bowser Jr where their importance is skewered. This is where the polls comes it. We use it becuase there isn't much else to use. Resources are scarse. But lets look at it this way.

Starfy: A lot of us thought he was probably a sure thing. He was a popular characters with many cameos, had a song, and 4 games in the span of a few years. But what happned? He became an assist trophy. The ultimate evidence is that he wasn't on the poll. So naturally, he's an assist.

The poll is see so highly becuase it is the ultimate validity. It shows Sakurai's actual interest in the game. The only down side to it is it is incomplete. But beyond that it works. We see it highy because it has proven it's self often. So far, PT is the only thing that can trump it, but even then, it could have been a suggestion, and shows Sakurai loves to do something unique.

So in the end, while not ever characters will make it in, and all the characters won't come off the poll, it gives us the best idea of who to expect.

While you personally may use the poll as a supplement there are a lot of people using it as the final determining factor in an argument; which is not right at all. The Poll really holds little weight compared to actual common sense.

[Smashchu]

spud said:

smashchu2 said:

But it just goes back to the two things I said.

The thing is you have to READ the poll. Megaman for instance. He made a 2 on the poll. Not a 5 or 1 but a two. While he stood the best chance after Sonic, it was more fanboys who supported him and made a bandwagon. All the AT in Brawl made 1s. So far, none of the characters who have made 2 or higher have become ATs trophies or stickers.

But this goes back to point 1. We have to fall back on the poll because their is nothing else. Back in Melee's day you could have said this. But now we have all of the major characters for the franchise, and the ones that aren't in have either been added or will be added. The rest are characters like Bowser Jr where their importance is skewered. This is where the polls comes it. We use it becuase there isn't much else to use. Resources are scarse. But lets look at it this way.

Starfy: A lot of us thought he was probably a sure thing. He was a popular characters with many cameos, had a song, and 4 games in the span of a few years. But what happned? He became an assist trophy. The ultimate evidence is that he wasn't on the poll. So naturally, he's an assist.

The poll is see so highly becuase it is the ultimate validity. It shows Sakurai's actual interest in the game. The only down side to it is it is incomplete. But beyond that it works. We see it highy because it has proven it's self often. So far, PT is the only thing that can trump it, but even then, it could have been a suggestion, and shows Sakurai loves to do something unique.

So in the end, while not ever characters will make it in, and all the characters won't come off the poll, it gives us the best idea of who to expect.

While you personally may use the poll as a supplement there are a lot of people using it as the final determining factor in an argument; which is not right at all. The Poll really holds little weight compared to actual common sense.

Sorry Spud, but it is. The facts are right before you.
-4 of the 6 characters shown aftre the poll came from the poll
-No character getting higher then a 2 is an AT, trophy or sticker
-Characters who are ATs never made it on the poll more then twice
-The highest ranker on the poll is in Brawl

The facts are there. You may want to look away from the poll, see it as just a list, but it HAS shown us who will be playabl;e. Crazy as it sounds, but it all goes back top point 1.

There is no evidence. Most of the arguments for characters have been so subjective. Look at are discusion in the Megaman topic. People say Bowser Jr. is important and can have a unique moveset while others say the exact opposite. Commonsence seems nice and all, but wioth little evidence, it all goes back to the poll.

The poll truely is the highest argument. This isn;t anything new. On numerous occasions has it be correct. It is Sakurai's interest in the character. It's hard to argue that. It holds the most water of any actual argument becuase it's impossible to prove the poll wrong. It has pretty been right every time except for PT. But even then, that doesn't decomfirm anyone.

Basing an argument from the poll is probably the most logical thing that works. Would you put more faith in something you know works verses something that has not worked often?

[Spud]

smashchu2 said:

spud said:

While you personally may use the poll as a supplement there are a lot of people using it as the final determining factor in an argument; which is not right at all. The Poll really holds little weight compared to actual common sense.

Sorry Spud, but it is. The facts are right before you.
-4 of the 6 characters shown aftre the poll came from the poll
-No character getting higher then a 2 is an AT, trophy or sticker
-Characters who are ATs never made it on the poll more then twice
-The highest ranker on the poll is in Brawl

The facts are there. You may want to look away from the poll, see it as just a list, but it HAS shown us who will be playabl;e. Crazy as it sounds, but it all goes back top point 1.

There is no evidence. Most of the arguments for characters have been so subjective. Look at are discusion in the Megaman topic. People say Bowser Jr. is important and can have a unique moveset while others say the exact opposite. Commonsence seems nice and all, but wioth little evidence, it all goes back to the poll.

The poll truely is the highest argument. This isn;t anything new. On numerous occasions has it be correct. It is Sakurai's interest in the character. It's hard to argue that. It holds the most water of any actual argument becuase it's impossible to prove the poll wrong. It has pretty been right every time except for PT. But even then, that doesn't decomfirm anyone.

Basing an argument from the poll is probably the most logical thing that works. Would you put more faith in something you know works verses something that has not worked often?

I can only put as much faith in that poll as I could in DiU's insane prophecy's. Despite both tend to be correct there is still little solid evidence that there not just beating the odds for right now. Again I grant that it does have some weight but I certainly wouldn't grant it extraordinary weight as some people have.

[Smashchu]

spud said:

smashchu2 said:

Sorry Spud, but it is. The facts are right before you.
-4 of the 6 characters shown aftre the poll came from the poll
-No character getting higher then a 2 is an AT, trophy or sticker
-Characters who are ATs never made it on the poll more then twice
-The highest ranker on the poll is in Brawl

The facts are there. You may want to look away from the poll, see it as just a list, but it HAS shown us who will be playabl;e. Crazy as it sounds, but it all goes back top point 1.

There is no evidence. Most of the arguments for characters have been so subjective. Look at are discusion in the Megaman topic. People say Bowser Jr. is important and can have a unique moveset while others say the exact opposite. Commonsence seems nice and all, but wioth little evidence, it all goes back to the poll.

The poll truely is the highest argument. This isn;t anything new. On numerous occasions has it be correct. It is Sakurai's interest in the character. It's hard to argue that. It holds the most water of any actual argument becuase it's impossible to prove the poll wrong. It has pretty been right every time except for PT. But even then, that doesn't decomfirm anyone.

Basing an argument from the poll is probably the most logical thing that works. Would you put more faith in something you know works verses something that has not worked often?

I can only put as much faith in that poll as I could in DiU's insane prophecy's. Despite both tend to be correct there is still little solid evidence that there not just beating the odds for right now. Again I grant that it does have some weight but I certainly wouldn't grant it extraordinary weight as some people have.

Here is why everyone puts so much faith in it.
Here, the Melee poll
Top 10
Bowser (169)
Peach (66)
Wario (65)
King Dedede (46)
Ganondorf (36)
Mewtwo (35)
007 James Bond (35)
Toad (27)
Mew (24)
Marth (21)
5 of the top 10 characters were in Melee. Mew and Toad were also in the game in some form. The characters who didn't make it though are now playable in Brawl.

Now we look at the Brawl poll. This time, the number isn't how many times it was suggested, but how many times Sakurai mentioned them. This is why it's also Sakurai's Journal. The Melee poll didn't get everyone. This was due to launchidious and some junk characters (like Jame Bond and Mew), but you can see that the poll is very important.

Sakurai judges a lot of additions by this. Besides IC and Game&Watch all the non-clones came from the poll. Four of the clones came from the poll as well (Roy's game wasn't even out so he is exampt). So the poll means a lot. This is Sakurai's likings and thoughts on the characters. It means a lot more then DiU's predictions. These are what Sakurai says, and like you guys have said before, Sakurai is the final judge.

[TV Eye]

You don't really need the poll to guess who'll be in Brawl. I could tell you...ahem...

Krystal, Ridley, WW Link, Bowser Jr., Isaac, Olimar, and any other character that has been frequently talked about.

I have sources from my fathers, brothers, nephews, cousins, former roomate.

[Smashchu]

tveye said:

You don't really need the poll to guess who'll be in Brawl. I could tell you...ahem...

Krystal, Ridley, WW Link, Bowser Jr., Isaac, Olimar, and any other character that has been frequently talked about.

I have sources from my fathers, brothers, nephews, cousins, former roomate.

Krysta, Ridley, WW Link and Olimar were all on the poll and were higher on it. So yeah, you can use the poll. But don't trust how much one "Talks" about a character. Starfy, Lyn and Gohor were talked about enough and didn't make it in.