Post by Flip on Dec 15, 2007 22:37:50 GMT -5
First thing's first: people reference this poll a lot. It's been our sagely gauge for a while now, and it has yet to fail us. But what exactly have we learned? Well... nothing. But what can we learn? We'll just have to wait and see.
Here is the full list: smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=71872
Below I have placed the most frequently requested characters, from which the only PLAYABLE characters have been selected. As far as Assists are concerned, they do fall within the outside cast of characters to appear on the roster (for example, Hammer Brother). My analysis follows the list.
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King Dedede(5) - CONFIRMED!
Diddy Kong(4) - CONFIRMED!
Geno(4)
Ike(4) - CONFIRMED!
Ridley(4)
Captain Olimar & Pikmin(3)
Krystal(3)
Takamaru(3)
Windwaker Link(3)
Animal Crossing MC(2)
Claus(2)
Demiru(2)
Isaac(2)
Jeff(2)
Kawasima(2)
King K.Rool(2)
Lip(2)
Lucas(2) - CONFIRMED!
Mega Man(2)
Oguma(2)
Ouendan(2)
Sukapon(2)
Lucas is the lowest voted character, thus far, to become playable. This means that, technically, anything above or equal to him is a potentiality to playable and therefore the entire list is in the running. However, when considering all the characters with 2 requests out of the almost 300 Sakurai posted, only a few are any likely at all.
Animal Crossing Villager has high chances of appearing, with a stage and icon already present in the game. However, with a PictoChat stage and DS icon also present, Animal Crossing may simply be just that--a stage without a representative. Claus may appear as a clone or potential "offshoot" of Lucas, but the likelihood of a second Mother character is skim. If anything, however, he would be it. That deconfirms Jeff in the process as well. Sukapon is also deconfirmed by Sakurai's comments back on the Melee website, stating that Sukapon was too quirky of a character to include in a Smash Bros. game. Lip is unlikely to appear either, as her special wand is an item in the game. Since this is arguably the equivalent to having the Master Sword being an item, it makes sense to think that she would be excluded from the fray.
Demiru is a potential fighter on the basis of his two well-versed requests. However, the fact that he has only starred in one game (and the recent news that a fellow Japanese character, Stafy, got relegated to Assist status) may hurt him, and likely puts him at Assist status. Ouendan, or the Elite Beat Agents, are excellent AT material as well, and thus are likely not playable in the least. They could rep the DS, however, just like Prof. Kawashima who would be much better off as an Assist as well--maybe even a Boss. A floating head does not do well to be a fighter, don't you think?
That leaves Oguma, K. Rool, Isaac, and Mega Man. Oguma is unlikely on the basis that Marth is likely to return. K. Rool is, however, likely on the basis that the game is including more villains. My only reasoning against him is that the DK series already has its two necessary fighters and thus any others would be filler, an argument that others may see as well. Isaac would easily represent the Golden Sun franchise, which would be a popular choice indeed. The concern, however, is that being another swordfighter he would be too similar to other characters and, frankly, Golden Sun is not a massively recognized franchise. Even Kid Icarus and Ice Climber had casual fans, but Golden Sun lacks that base. Mega Man is the only other character of the "Twofers" that has some chance of appearing. Being the most requested third party character that isn't Sonic, he has a very high and significant chance of appearing. However, his form may not be that of the Original but maybe that of Star Force of EXE, considering the way Capcom has been going. The 20th Anniversary is this month and is being used heavily to advertise the newest Mega "Men" to the world.
All four of the 3-Vote Getters are very likely. Takamaru impressed Sakurai on the Melee website, and appears to be on par with Pit, Link, and Samus for notoriety in Japan. The argument against him is that he is Japan only, and with Stafy becoming an Assist it isn't too far fetched to see the same happening to Takamaru. However, nothing has come out to directly jeopardize his inclusion either. He is highly likely in most fans' eyes. Wind Waker Link is the logical evolution of Young Link, who will likely reappear in Brawl. As the Zelda franchise will likely keep a fourth representative, a fresher Young Link would be the key to keeping that alive. WW Link has appeared in multiple titles as well. Krystal and Olimar are also new mainstays in the Nintendo pantheon, with Krystal becoming a Star Fox regular and Olimar becoming Miyamoto's newest success. Krystal would be a unique female fighter and a good rep for the Star Fox franchise, and with the "slip" of her VA it is confirmed she is in the game in some form. Olimar would be difficult to create a valid moveset for and may work better as an Assist, but given a chance he could work. Sakurai made sure to include Pikmin in Melee at the last minute--it may work again to see Olimar as a playable fighter.
The other three confirmed fighters on the list are from the Top Vote Getters. Dedede, Ike, and Diddy Kong are all confirmed. Between them lie Ridley and Geno, the two most controversial ideas yet. Ridley is argued to be too big or a raping of Metroid's "philosophy" of focusing on Samus. Geno is, technically, a property of Square-Enix and hails from one game, Mario RPG, and a touchy game at that. However, considering the pattern we have seen thus far (and with the two having appeared on the Melee poll from 1999 as well, alongside Peach, Bowser, Wario, Pit, Meta Knight, Mewtwo, Marth, and Pokemon Trainer
), it is highly likely we will see them in-game in playable form. Unless Sakurai does not follow the logic we have seen with pulling fighters from fan suggestions, these are the two most likely characters of the bunch.
In all, I think we should expect:
Ridley, Geno, Krystal, Takamaru, Olimar, WW Link -- 6 More Newcomers
And be surprised, but not upset, if we don't see at least one of the following:
AC Villager, Isaac, Mega Man, Claus, K. Rool -- 5 Other Newcomers
As for the rest, and other characters on the poll that appear once, we will only see them as Assists at best. Not to say we won't get another "wtf?!" or two, but this is the surest thing we got.
Trust me.
Here is the full list: smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=71872
Below I have placed the most frequently requested characters, from which the only PLAYABLE characters have been selected. As far as Assists are concerned, they do fall within the outside cast of characters to appear on the roster (for example, Hammer Brother). My analysis follows the list.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
King Dedede(5) - CONFIRMED!
Diddy Kong(4) - CONFIRMED!
Geno(4)
Ike(4) - CONFIRMED!
Ridley(4)
Captain Olimar & Pikmin(3)
Krystal(3)
Takamaru(3)
Windwaker Link(3)
Animal Crossing MC(2)
Claus(2)
Demiru(2)
Isaac(2)
Jeff(2)
Kawasima(2)
King K.Rool(2)
Lip(2)
Lucas(2) - CONFIRMED!
Mega Man(2)
Oguma(2)
Ouendan(2)
Sukapon(2)
Lucas is the lowest voted character, thus far, to become playable. This means that, technically, anything above or equal to him is a potentiality to playable and therefore the entire list is in the running. However, when considering all the characters with 2 requests out of the almost 300 Sakurai posted, only a few are any likely at all.
Animal Crossing Villager has high chances of appearing, with a stage and icon already present in the game. However, with a PictoChat stage and DS icon also present, Animal Crossing may simply be just that--a stage without a representative. Claus may appear as a clone or potential "offshoot" of Lucas, but the likelihood of a second Mother character is skim. If anything, however, he would be it. That deconfirms Jeff in the process as well. Sukapon is also deconfirmed by Sakurai's comments back on the Melee website, stating that Sukapon was too quirky of a character to include in a Smash Bros. game. Lip is unlikely to appear either, as her special wand is an item in the game. Since this is arguably the equivalent to having the Master Sword being an item, it makes sense to think that she would be excluded from the fray.
Demiru is a potential fighter on the basis of his two well-versed requests. However, the fact that he has only starred in one game (and the recent news that a fellow Japanese character, Stafy, got relegated to Assist status) may hurt him, and likely puts him at Assist status. Ouendan, or the Elite Beat Agents, are excellent AT material as well, and thus are likely not playable in the least. They could rep the DS, however, just like Prof. Kawashima who would be much better off as an Assist as well--maybe even a Boss. A floating head does not do well to be a fighter, don't you think?
That leaves Oguma, K. Rool, Isaac, and Mega Man. Oguma is unlikely on the basis that Marth is likely to return. K. Rool is, however, likely on the basis that the game is including more villains. My only reasoning against him is that the DK series already has its two necessary fighters and thus any others would be filler, an argument that others may see as well. Isaac would easily represent the Golden Sun franchise, which would be a popular choice indeed. The concern, however, is that being another swordfighter he would be too similar to other characters and, frankly, Golden Sun is not a massively recognized franchise. Even Kid Icarus and Ice Climber had casual fans, but Golden Sun lacks that base. Mega Man is the only other character of the "Twofers" that has some chance of appearing. Being the most requested third party character that isn't Sonic, he has a very high and significant chance of appearing. However, his form may not be that of the Original but maybe that of Star Force of EXE, considering the way Capcom has been going. The 20th Anniversary is this month and is being used heavily to advertise the newest Mega "Men" to the world.
All four of the 3-Vote Getters are very likely. Takamaru impressed Sakurai on the Melee website, and appears to be on par with Pit, Link, and Samus for notoriety in Japan. The argument against him is that he is Japan only, and with Stafy becoming an Assist it isn't too far fetched to see the same happening to Takamaru. However, nothing has come out to directly jeopardize his inclusion either. He is highly likely in most fans' eyes. Wind Waker Link is the logical evolution of Young Link, who will likely reappear in Brawl. As the Zelda franchise will likely keep a fourth representative, a fresher Young Link would be the key to keeping that alive. WW Link has appeared in multiple titles as well. Krystal and Olimar are also new mainstays in the Nintendo pantheon, with Krystal becoming a Star Fox regular and Olimar becoming Miyamoto's newest success. Krystal would be a unique female fighter and a good rep for the Star Fox franchise, and with the "slip" of her VA it is confirmed she is in the game in some form. Olimar would be difficult to create a valid moveset for and may work better as an Assist, but given a chance he could work. Sakurai made sure to include Pikmin in Melee at the last minute--it may work again to see Olimar as a playable fighter.
The other three confirmed fighters on the list are from the Top Vote Getters. Dedede, Ike, and Diddy Kong are all confirmed. Between them lie Ridley and Geno, the two most controversial ideas yet. Ridley is argued to be too big or a raping of Metroid's "philosophy" of focusing on Samus. Geno is, technically, a property of Square-Enix and hails from one game, Mario RPG, and a touchy game at that. However, considering the pattern we have seen thus far (and with the two having appeared on the Melee poll from 1999 as well, alongside Peach, Bowser, Wario, Pit, Meta Knight, Mewtwo, Marth, and Pokemon Trainer
), it is highly likely we will see them in-game in playable form. Unless Sakurai does not follow the logic we have seen with pulling fighters from fan suggestions, these are the two most likely characters of the bunch. In all, I think we should expect:
Ridley, Geno, Krystal, Takamaru, Olimar, WW Link -- 6 More Newcomers
And be surprised, but not upset, if we don't see at least one of the following:
AC Villager, Isaac, Mega Man, Claus, K. Rool -- 5 Other Newcomers
As for the rest, and other characters on the poll that appear once, we will only see them as Assists at best. Not to say we won't get another "wtf?!" or two, but this is the surest thing we got.
Trust me.
